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The emergence of a democratic Iran as a result of the strikes launched by the United States and Israel is “far from certain”, European Union High Representative Kaja Kallas said on Wednesday, warning of a “widening war” in the region and a “dangerous moment” for Europe.
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The US-Israeli strikes on Iran have killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of high-ranking officials, raising questions about how long the Islamic Republic can last.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly talked about regime change in Iran. He first encouraged the Iranian people to take control of the country, but then he said, “Don’t do it yet”. The Iranian opposition was substantially weakened by a violent crackdown earlier this year.
On Wednesday, Kallas sought to temper down expectations of an imminent transition that could remove a government long hostile to the West.
“The war in the Middle East is rapidly widening. Tehran’s strategy is to sow chaos and set the region on fire. By indiscriminately attacking its neighbours, the regime is making a strong case for its own demise,” Kallas said during an official visit to Poland.
“Of course, the dream scenario would be a democratic Iran that poses no threat to its neighbours, but this outcome is far from certain. Right now, no one can predict which direction this war will take,” she added.
Kallas has convened a virtual meeting of EU foreign ministers for Thursday morning to continue fine-tuning the collective response to the conflict, which has been marked by sharp disagreements over international law.
The interception of several drones on a British military base in Cyprus has heightened the sense of alarm. Kallas confirmed that no member state has requested the activation of the mutual assistance clause enshrined in the EU treaties.
The clause, used only once, came to the fore in January after Trump threatened to seize Greenland from Denmark through tariffs.
“For Europe, it’s a dangerous moment,” Kallas said. “The safety of thousands of our citizens in the region is at stake. The EU is coordinating consular assistance and funding repatriation flights for people stranded in the region.”
The High Representative admitted to being concerned about the war in the Middle East “diverting attention away” from efforts to end Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which she described as the “real and very close threat” to Europe.
“We cannot let Ukraine slip off the agenda. Moscow might have lost an ally in Tehran, but the same drones that are hitting Dubai are also hitting Kyiv,” she said.
“What is worrying is that all these (military) capabilities that are needed in the Middle East are also needed in Ukraine,” she noted.
Speaking of the steep rise in oil prices fuelled by the US-Israeli strikes, Kallas urged the EU to adopt a full ban on maritime services to Russian crude tankers, which is part of a new package of sanctions that is currenlty blocked by Hungary. The ban is aimed to cripple Moscow’s energy revenues, critical to sustain the war machine.
Hungary has also vetoed a €90 billion loan to Ukraine over a dispute involving the Druzhba oil pipeline, which Brussels is pushing to have fixed.
“A broken pipeline should not hold Ukraine’s defence hostage,” Kallas said.
